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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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