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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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