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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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