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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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