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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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