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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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