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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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