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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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