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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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