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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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