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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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