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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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