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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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