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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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