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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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