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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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