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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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