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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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