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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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