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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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