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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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