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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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