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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
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