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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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