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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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