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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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