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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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