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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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