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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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