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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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