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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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