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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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