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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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