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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
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