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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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