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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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