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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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