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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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