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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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