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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 26 October 20
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
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As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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