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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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