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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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