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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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