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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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