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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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