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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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