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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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