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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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