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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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