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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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