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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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