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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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