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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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