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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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