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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
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