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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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