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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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