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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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