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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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