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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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