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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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