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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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