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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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