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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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